Home Sweet Home: The Effects of Home State Advantage

Author: Yanet Ocampo

Questions? Contact Me: ybocampo-ocampo@muhlenberg.edu

Source:
“George W. Bush,” Biography.com (A&E Networks Television, August 21, 2019), https://www.biography.com/us-president/george-w-bush.
Pete Souza , Official White House Photo , photograph (Washington D.C., n.d.), The White House

Determining Home State Advantage

How does home-state advantage influence voters in a president’s home state? I examine data from the 2000 and 2008 elections, focusing on voting trends in President George W. Bush and Barack Obama’s counties, McLennan County and Cook County. The data results are compared to past election results within the national, state, and county level. By exploring this question, I will determine how influential home-state advantage is within a presidential election, as well as the potential shifts in voting trends. The results reveal if there are any drastic effects of regional loyalty within each state.

I use the original and an adjusted version of political scientists, Micheal S. Lewis Beck and Tom W. Rice’s formula to determine differences in voter turnout rates within each presidential candidate’s county. The formula is H=(Sa – Se) – (Na – Ne) where H stands for home state advantage, Sa stands for the voter percentage won by the presidential candidate in their home state, Se stands for average popular vote percentage won by the presidential candidate’s party in his or her home state over the previous five presidential elections, Na stands national percentage that the candidate won within the election, and Ne stands for the average popular vote percentage won by the candidate’s party in the previous five presidential elections. Unless the candidates are incumbents, the data will be compared to the previous election. The data also allows us to analyze the extent to which home state advantage affects voter turnout and if voter loyalty is more prevalent in a specific region.

Voter Loyalty: Home State Advantages Throughout the Presidency

Throughout history, home state advantage has proven to be existent within both local and national elections. Presidential candidates’ lives and information regarding their upbringing and home life are consistently highlighted in the media. Thus, a President’s home state is spotlighted more often and depicted with pride. In The Strategic Importance of State-Level Factors in Presidential Elections, Richard J. Powell explains that “the major benefit that is expected to accrue to parties is the increased attention given to their candidates from the local news media. Further, coverage of national politics by local news media tends to be much more positive, focusing on pomp and pageantry rather than hard-hitting analysis.” Thus, voters who are local to the president’s home state can have an altered image of the way that the candidate is represented in the media. Moreover, there are many factors that contribute to the way the public votes. According to political scientists, Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Tom W. Rice, “we are offered the psychological satisfaction of identification with a president who is more like our “friends and neighbors.” Thus, feeling a sense of connection to a presidential candidate elicits a sense of loyalty within voters from a candidate’s home state and can ultimately alter election results. Voter loyalty is more prevalent in smaller states because voters feel like they have a more direct relationship with a home-grown candidate. Moreover, in The Western Political Quarterly, Rice and Lewis-Beck also suggest that even if there isn’t a direct home state advantage, a presidential nominee’s home state can create an advantage on a regional level. Historically, Southern and Western states have demonstrated patterns in maintaining regional loyalty. Likewise, the vice presidential nominee also acquires home state advantage. Hence, this factor can be used as an effective campaign strategy for the presidential nominee. Media outlets devote large amounts of time and coverage to vice presidential selection and can create a drastic influence in voting within a candidate’s home state. Furthermore, data reveals that Democrats are more likely to reference home state in the media in comparison to Republicans. Typically, Democrats vote at a lower rate and therefore, this media strategy can be used to mobilize voters to vote for the candidate from their home state.

2000 Election:

The 2000 election was unique as the popular vote and the Electoral College both produced different results. George W. Bush lost the popular vote but defeated Al Gore through the Electoral College. A 5-4 vote in Bush v. Gore determined that there wasn’t any effective way to recount the votes so Bush would become the next president of the United States. Bush was raised in different cities across Texas but he mainly resided in Crawford, a small town in western McLennan County, Texas. In the 2000 election, there were nearly one million more voters in Texas than the previous election. George W. Bush nearly swept the entire state of Texas by winning 236 out of 254 counties.

*McLennan County on Texas Map*, n.d., photograph, n.d., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McLennan_County,_Texas.

2008 Election:

Barack Obama was born and for the majority of his life was raised in Hawaii, but he began his political career when he won the Illinois State Senate in 1996 as a Democrat from Hyde Park. Obama continued to reside in Hyde Park for the majority of his political career before being elected President of the United States. He resided in Cook County when he ran for President which was where he made history by receiving 698,158 votes, the highest number of votes ever recorded in Cook County. Furthermore, Barack Obama also won 27 out of the 30 districts in Cook County, which is the highest amount of townships won in Cook County by a Democratic candidate.

David Benbennick, *Cook County on Illinois Map*, February 6, 2012, photograph, February 6, 2012, https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archivo:Map_of_Illinois_highlighting_Cook_County.svg.

Findings

2000 Election

McLennan County Voter Registration Figures. Accessed October 12, 2020. https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/mclennan.shtml.

The graph depicts the difference and slight increase of registered voters and voters in George W. Bush’s home county, McLennan County.

“Election Results Archive .” *Election Results Archive*, Texas Secretary of State , www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/elections-results-archive.shtml.

The Republican nominee in 2000, George W. Bush, is a Texas resident, so it is apparent that there was a slight increase between the number of registered voters and voter turnout in McLennan County. There was a .94 percent increase in voter registration and a .85 percent increase in voter turnout within McLennan County, Texas. Although there was a minor increase in voter turnout, it does not seem significant enough to correlate it to the mobilization of voter due to an elicited sense of pride for their nominee.

“Election Results Archive .” Election Results Archive, Texas Secretary of State, www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/elections-results-archive.shtml.

The graph above focuses on the percentage difference of the number of voters for the Republican nominee in McLennan County, Texas for the 1996 and 2000 elections. In 1996, the Republican nominee was Bob Dole, a resident of Arkansas. In the 2000 election, there was a 15.28% increase in support for George W. Bush, the Republican nominee.

“How McLennan County Voted in Presidential Elections: The Last 100 Years.” WacoTrib.com, November 5, 2020. https://wacotrib.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/how-mclennan-county-voted-in-presidential-elections-the-last-100-years/collection_03f00c2a-1047-11eb-82f4-179588559bce.html.

Data from the previous five presidential elections prior to George W. Bush’s presidency was used to determine the average popular vote percentage for the Republican Party on a national level and within the state of Texas. Hence, the average totals were then used to determine the extent of home state advantage on a state and county level. The Lewis-Beck and Rice formula determined that George W. Bush had a 5.5% home state advantage within the state of Texas, while the modified version of the formula revealed that Bush only had a 3.24% advantage in McLennan County where his hometown is located.

2008 Election

The graph above depicts the minor increase in registered voters and voter turnout in Cook County, Illinois between the 2004 and 2008 election.

“Election Results,” Election Results | Cook County Clerk’s Office, accessed November 16, 2020, https://www.cookcountyclerk.com/election-results?field_election_date_value%5Bvalue%5D%5Byear%5D=2004.
Orr, David. “Presidential Election: Suburban Cook County .” Cook County Clerk’s Office . Accessed October 12, 2020.
https://www.cookcountyclerk.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/Nov2008%20PostElection%20rpt.pdf

The graph above focuses on the percentage difference of the number of voters for the Democratic Candidate in Cook County, Illinois for the 2004 and 2008 elections. In 2004, the Democratic candidate was John Kerry, a resident of Colorado. In the 2008 election, there was a 8.04% increase in support for Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee who resided in Cook County. This is a noteworthy increase and could be accredited to voter loyalty.

“Election and Voting Information.” FEC.gov, www.fec.gov/introduction-campaign-finance/election-and-voting-information/.

Leip, David. “United States Presidential Election Results .” Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, 2019, uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/.

The average popular vote percentage for the Democratic Party on a national level and within the state of Illinois was comprised of data from the previous five presidential elections prior to Barack Obama’s presidency. Hence, the average totals were then used to determine the extent of home state advantage on a state and county level. The Lewis-Beck and Rice formula determined that Barack Obama had a 3.15% home state advantage within the state of Illinois. However, when using the modified version to calculate Obama’s home state advantage in Cook County, Illinois, it was determined that the county where he resides in did not provide him with any advantage.

Discussion

Home State Advantages can create significant effects on voter registration, voter turnout, and can even alter election results. In 2000, the Republican candidate, George W. Bush, only had a .94 percent increase in voter registration and a .85 percent increase in voter turnout within McLennan County, Texas. Thus, although there was a minor increase in voter registration and voter turnout, the data reveals that voter mobilization was not severely influenced in his home county. However, support for the Republican Party in McLennan County drastically increased from the previous election in 1996, as there was a 15.28% increase in support for George W. Bush. This is a drastic increase and could be accredited to voter loyalty due to George W. Bush being from Crawford, Texas, a small town in McLennan County. When calculating the overall effect of home state advantage using the Lewis-Beck and Rice formula, it was determined that George W. Bush had a 5.5% advantage for the popular vote within the state of Texas. Furthermore, although there was a significant increase in support for the Republican Party in McLennan County during the 2000 election, a modified version of the formula revealed that there was only a 3.24% advantage for the popular vote within Bush’s home county. While the increase in home state advantage appears to be insignificant, it is important to note that Bush lost the popular vote during the 2000 election. Thus, it is evident that voter loyalty for a candidate within their home state was maintained. Moreover, during the 2008 election, there was a 8.04% increase in support for the Democratic Party in Cook County, Illinois in comparison to the previous presidential election in 2004. The Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, is a resident of Cook County, Illinois. Thus, the significant increase in support for the candidate can be accredited to the preservation of voter loyalty and and an elicited sense of voter pride for the candidate. The Lewis-Beck and Rice Home State Advantage formula determined that Obama had an overall 3.15% advantage for the popular vote within the state of Illinois. However, the modified version of the formula revealed that he did not have any advantage for the popular vote within his home county. Although, it is important to note that historically, the majority of residents in Cook County, Illinois already tend to vote for the Democratic party. This was evident in the 2008 election, as Obama won 27 out of 30 districts.

When comparing these two elections in which home-state advantage was analyzed for both a Republican candidate and a Democratic candidate, it was determined that the Republican candidate, George W. Bush, had a greater increase in support from their home county than the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama. George W. Bush’s home state of Texas is located in the South, whereas Obama’s home state, Illinois, is located in the Midwest. Thus, the data comparison between the two candidates in different regions further upholds the notion that voter loyalty is more likely to be maintained in Southern states.

Bibliography

Devine, Christopher J., and Kyle C. Kopko. “The Home State Advantage Is Dead … Long Live the Home State Advantage!” In The VP Advantage: How Running Mates Influence Home State Voting in Presidential Elections, 17-33. Manchester University Press, 2016. Accessed September 30, 2020. http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt19x3j61.8.

“Election and Voting Information.” FEC.gov, www.fec.gov/introduction-campaign-finance/election-and-voting-information/.

“Election Results Archive .” Election Results Archive, Texas Secretary of State , www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/elections-results-archive.shtml.

Elving, Ron. “The Florida Recount Of 2000: A Nightmare That Goes On Haunting.” NPR. NPR, November 12, 2018. https://www.npr.org/2018/11/12/666812854/the-florida-recount-of-2000-a-nightmare-that-goes-on-haunting.

Garand, James C. “Localism and Regionalism in Presidential Elections: Is There a Home State or Regional Advantage?” The Western Political Quarterly 41, no. 1 (1988): 85-103. Accessed October 12, 2020. doi:10.2307/448458.

History.com Editors. “Barack Obama.” History.com. A&E Television Networks, November 9, 2009. https://www.history.com/topics/us-presidents/barack-obama.

Leip, David. “United States Presidential Election Results .” Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, 2019, uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/.

Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tom W. Rice. “Localism in Presidential Elections: The Home State Advantage.” American Journal of Political Science 27, no. 3 (1983): 548-56. Accessed September 30, 2020. doi:10.2307/2110984.

McLennan County Voter Registration Figures. Accessed October 12, 2020. https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/mclennan.shtml.

Orr, David. “Presidential Election: Suburban Cook County .” Cook County Clerk’s Office . Accessed October 12, 2020. https://www.cookcountyclerk.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/Nov2008%20PostElection%20rpt.pdf.

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